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Three Reasons why Union Omaha can win the League One title… and one why they won’t

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/19/24, 9:50AM EDT

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Los Buhos are the first team in the playoffs this season and bring the aim of being the league’s first two-time winner


Union Omaha will take aim at winning its second League One title when the postseason arrives in November after clinching with six games to play in the regular season. | Photo courtesy Jack Yates / Union Omaha

Union Omaha became the first team to clinch its place in the USL League One Playoffs presented by Terminix on Wednesday night, and it didn’t even have to take to the field.

Lexington SC’s 7-1 victory against Central Valley Fuego FC booked Los Buhos’ ticket to the postseason, putting them out of reach of the four teams below the playoff line either outright or in the case of Lexington on the first tiebreaker of total wins.

The 2021 League One title winner will now get the chance to become the first team to raise the trophy twice. Here are three reasons why they’ll be the last team standing, and one reason why they won’t.

1. ATTACKING POTENCY

Union Omaha boasts arguably the best attack in League One. It leads the league with 34 goals in 17 outings and has a combined 50 goals across league and USL Jägermeister Cup play overall. It’s been a consistent threat – only Spokane Velocity has scored in more games (14) than Omaha, which has tallied at least once in 81 percent of its 16 league outings, and it leads the league in Big Chances Created with 37 – an average of 2.3 per game.

It's accomplished this through its diversity in attack. Pedro Dolabella leads the side with eight league goals, but Union is currently the only team in the league with four players that have recorded at least four goals as Steeven Dos Santos, Joe Gallardo and Lagos Kunga have also been threats. The saying might be “defense wins championships”, but you’ve got to be able to put the ball in the net to win as well.

2. IMPRESSIVE FRONTRUNNERS

The ability to put results away is critical in the postseason. The good news for Omaha is they’ve been adept at accomplishing that this season, especially when they’ve scored the opening goal. Los Buhos are 7-1-0 when they score first in League One play this season and have dropped only five points from winning positions overall in league play.

As important as holding a lead is in the regular season, it amplifies in the playoffs. The scoreboard pressure of time ticking away is huge for teams that are trailing, and that’s where Omaha’s other key number comes into play. No side has scored more goals in League One than Union in the final half-hour of games, with Head Coach Dominic Casciato’s squad having notched 15 of its 34 goals in the 61st minute or later. If Omaha forces an opponent to chase the game, they’re typically ready to capitalize at the other end.

3. ROAD TO REDEMPTION

Rewind 12 months. Omaha was on top of the League One standings having scored the most goals in the league to earn the Players’ Shield. Then after earning a bye to the Semifinals it did everything but score against the Charlotte Independence – outshooting its visitors 32-10 across regulation and extra time while earning a 2.71-0.31 Expected Goal advantage – before falling in a penalty shootout.

With a three-point lead in the standings and a game in hand on its closest competition for the first silverware of the season, Union could very well find itself in the same spot. The memory of last year’s playoff disappointment could be a huge motivator for this squad, which still has eight players that appeared in last year’s postseason exit in its squad.

Why Omaha Won’t Win it All

The consensus is it’s much better to be at home than on the road when it comes to the postseason. You don’t have to travel, you’re in front of your home fans, your weekly routine is in place. For Omaha, however, home hasn’t always been a happy hunting ground this season.

Los Buhos are only 3-2-2 at Werner Park this season, have dropped all five points they’ve let slip from a winning position at home, and have only a +1.62 Expected Goal Differential. This team has somehow built its advantage on the road, where it is 7-2-0 and has an Expected Goal Differential of +5.79. The road to the League One title may very well go through Werner Park, but that may not necessarily be the best thing for the hosts.


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