Race to the 2023 USL League One Playoffs

Race to the 2023 USL League One Playoffs - Week 30

By ETHAN TRIEBSCH - ethan.triebsch@uslsoccer.com, 10/06/23, 3:15PM EDT

2023 USL League One Players' Shield could be won Saturday evening

With just two weeks and 11 matches remaining in the regular season, the pressure is rising with four clubs remaining in contention for the two remaining spots in the 2023 USL League One Playoffs. Detailed below are some high-stakes matches to keep an eye on along with current standings with playoff-clinching details

Saturday, October 7

Chattanooga Red Wolves SC

Greenville Triumph SC

7:30 PM

CHI Memorial Stadium

Match Center

Coming down to the wire, Greenville can clinch a postseason spot with a win in Chattanooga. In an all-time series dominated by Greenville at 9-3-3, Triumph SC have more wins against Chattanooga than any other opponent, and the Red Wolves have more losses against Greenville than any other opponent.

Saturday, October 7

South Georgia Tormenta FC

Union Omaha

7:30 PM

Optim Sports Medicine Field at Tormenta Stadium

Match Center

One of the pivotal, late matches on Saturday evening, South Georgia will host what will more than likely be the last match of the season at Tormenta Stadium in arguably the venue’s most consequential match since the 2022 USL League One Final. Two of the hottest teams to close out the season are in need of a win – South Georgia to inch closer to the postseason and Omaha to move within striking distance of the Players’ Shield.

Saturday, October 7

Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC

Forward Madison FC

9:00 PM

Future Legends Complex

Match Center

Week 30 concludes with a critical contest between Northern Colorado and Madison. Dropped points for either Northern Colorado or Madison means its Players’ Shield and postseason hopes, respectively, will drop drastically.

1. Union Omaha

Record:17-5-8, 59pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Magic Number: Clinched

Max Points Available: 65

Strength of Schedule: 6th

Projected Finish: 1st (50%)

Best/Worst Finish: 1st (50%)/3rd (19%)

Up Next: at TRM (10/7)

With its 4-1 win over Charlotte on Wednesday, Omaha has a chance to become the first team in league history to lift the Players’ Shield twice as soon as Saturday.
CLINCHING SCENARIO (first-round bye):

OMA win at TRM AND NCO loss/draw vs. MAD

OR

NC loss/draw at LEX AND OMA win at TRM

CLINCHING SCENARIO (Players’ Shield):

NC loss/draw at LEX AND OMA win at TRM AND NCO loss/draw vs. MAD

2. North Carolina FC

Record:17-7-6, 57pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Magic Number: Clinched

Max Points Available: 63

Strength of Schedule: 9th

Projected Finish: 2nd (38%)

Best/Worst Finish: 1st (34%)/3rd (28%)
Up Next: at LEX (10/7)

Finishing no lower than third place, North Carolina have now confirmed its best season since the 2017 NASL campaign. Now, the goal is to grab a pair of trophies before heading to the USL Championship.
CLINCHING SCENARIO (first-round bye):

NC win at LEX AND NCO loss/draw vs. MAD

3. Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC

Record:16-6-8, 56pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Magic Number: Clinched

Max Points Available: 62

Strength of Schedule: 8th

Projected Finish: 3rd (53%)

Best/Worst Finish: 1st (16%)/3rd (53%)

Up Next: vs. MAD (10/7)

The Hailstorm almost certainly will need to win out in order to lift its first trophy in club history in the form of the Players’ Shield. Northern Colorado are a combined 1-0-3 this season against its two remaining opponents in Madison and Chattanooga, though.

4. Charlotte Independence

Record:13-9-9, 48pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Magic Number: Clinched

Max Points Available: 51

Strength of Schedule: 7th

Projected Finish: 4th (51%)

Best/Worst Finish: 4th (51%)/6th (2%)

Up Next: vs. TRM (10/14)

Charlotte’s largest loss in well over a year came at a tough time. The Jacks’ 4-1 loss to Omaha means that Greenville can clinch the final home playoff spot by winning out.

5. Greenville Triumph SC

Record:13-10-7, 46 pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Magic Number: 2

Max Points Available: 52

Strength of Schedule: 10th

Projected Finish: 4th/5th (49%)

Best/Worst Finish: 4th (49%)/7th (<1%)

Up Next: at CHA (10/7)

A win over an increasingly hot Chattanooga side or dropped Tormenta FC points on Saturday means a record fifth consecutive postseason appearance for John Harkes and his Triumph SC.
CLINCHING SCENARIO:

GVL win at CHA

OR

TRM loss/draw at OMA

6. Forward Madison FC

Record:11-9-10, 43 pts

Playoffs Odds: 90%

Magic Number: 5

Max Points Available: 49

Strength of Schedule: 1st

Projected Finish: 6th (85%)

Best/Worst Finish: 4th (1%)/9th (<1%)

Up Next: at NCO (10/7)

With two matches remaining, the ‘Mingos have the toughest remaining schedule. The odds are still in Madison’s favor to head to the postseason, but it certainly won’t be easy.
CLINCHING SCENARIO:

TRM loss/draw at OMA AND MAD win at NCO

7. South Georgia Tormenta FC

Record: 12-13-5, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: 8%

Magic Number: N/A

Max Points Available: 47

Strength of Schedule: 2nd

Projected Finish: 7th (59%)

Best/Worst Finish: 4th (<1%)/8th (30%)

Up Next: vs. OMA (10/7)

Win and the defending champs remain in postseason contention. Dropped points against Omaha and a Madison win in Windsor means Ibis elimination.
ELIMINATION SCENARIO:

TRM loss/draw at OMA AND MAD win at NCO

8. One Knoxville SC

Record: 9-11-10, 37 pts

Playoffs Odds: 2%

Magic Number: N/A

Max Points Available: 43

Strength of Schedule: 5th

Projected Finish: 8th (65%)

Best/Worst Finish: 6th (2%)/9th (<1%)

Up Next: vs. RIC (10/6)

Knoxville need a win and a lot of help from some friends to keep its postseason hopes alive. With matches against Richmond and North Carolina remaining, don’t be shocked if One Knox make things interesting late.
ELIMINATION SCENARIO:

KNX loss/draw vs. RIC

OR

MAD win/draw at NCO

9. Lexington SC

Record:7-13-10, 31 pts

Playoffs Odds: 0%

Magic Number: Eliminated

Max Points Available: 37

Strength of Schedule: 3rd

Projected Finish: 9th (50%)

Best/Worst Finish: 9th (50%)/11th (15%)

Up Next: vs. NC (10/7)

Lexington’s final home match of its inaugural season comes against Players’-Shield-chasing NCFC. We could be in for a good one at Toyota Stadium.

10. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC

Record:8-16-6, 30 pts

Playoffs Odds: 0%

Magic Number: Eliminated

Max Points Available: 36

Strength of Schedule: 4th

Projected Finish: 10th (40%)

Best/Worst Finish: 8th (<1%)/11th (24%)

Up Next: vs. GVL (10/7)

Enjoying a nice run of form since Scott Mackenzie took the reins, Chattanooga will have something to prove against the team they have historically struggled the most with in Greenville.

11. Richmond Kickers

Record:6-14-10, 28 pts

Playoffs Odds: 0%

Magic Number: Eliminated

Max Points Available: 34

Strength of Schedule: 11th

Projected Finish: 11th (61%)

Best/Worst Finish: 9th (14%)/11th (61%)

Up Next: at KNX (10/6)

The Kickers can officially kill Knoxville’s playoff aspirations with a win at Regal Soccer Stadium on Friday - Richmond’s first-ever trip to Knoxville.

12. Central Valley Fuego FC

Record:5-21-5, 20 pt

Playoffs Odds: 0%

Magic Number: Eliminated

Max Points Available: 23

Strength of Schedule: 12th

Projected Finish: 12th (100%)

Best/Worst Finish: N/A

Up Next: at RIC (10/14)

A Richmond loss or draw against Knoxville on Friday means that Central Valley will face a team on the same trajectory as itself – each winless across their last 14 matches.