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Race to the 2023 USL League One Playoffs - Week 29

By ETHAN TRIEBSCH - ethan.triebsch@uslsoccer.com, 09/28/23, 10:45AM EDT

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Final three playoff spots can be decided on Saturday

With just three weeks and 19 matches remaining in the regular season, the pressure is rising with five clubs remaining in contention for the three remaining spots in the 2023 USL League One Playoffs. Detailed below are some high-stakes matches to keep an eye on along with current standings with playoff-clinching details

Friday, September 29
North Carolina FC
Union Omaha
7:00 PM
Stadium IconWakeMed Soccer Park
Match Center

A winner in this massive top-of-the-table clash will control its own destiny when it comes to lifting the Players’ Shield. The Owls, though, have dominated North Carolina in seven previous meetings, scoring twice as many goals and maintaining a 4-1-2 record.

Saturday, September 30
Charlotte Independence
One Knoxville SC
5:00 PM
Stadium IconAmerican Legion Memorial Stadium
Match Center

The only team Charlotte has failed to defeat in league play this season, Knoxville will be eager to complete the season sweep and preserve its postseason aspirations. With Charlotte’s postseason position just about locked up, the match is much more consequential for the visiting OKSC.

Saturday, September 30
Richmond Kickers
South Georgia Tormenta FC
6:00 PM
Stadium IconCity Stadium
Match Center

The Players’ Shield holders will host the defending champions in a match that paints a completely different picture from a season ago. Tormenta FC needs a win to keep its playoff hopes intact but that may prove difficult at City Stadium; the Ibises are just 1-2-2 when visiting the Kickers.

1. North Carolina FC
Record:17-7-5, 56pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Magic Number: Clinched

Max Points Available: 65
Strength of Schedule: 7th

Projected Finish: 1st (58%)

Best/Worst Finish: 1st (58%)/4th (<1%)
Up Next: vs. OMA (9/29)
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After finishing in last place in each of its first two seasons in the league, North Carolina are now a win and Northern Colorado loss away from confirming the most significant jump up the table from one season to the next in league history.
2. Union Omaha
Record:16-5-7, 55pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Magic Number: Clinched

Max Points Available: 67
Strength of Schedule: 3rd

Projected Finish: 2nd (40%)

Best/Worst Finish: 1st (37%)/6th (<1%)

Up Next: at NC (9/29)
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The Owls have the most possible points remaining in the league and a massive upcoming matchup against first-place NCFC. Win and they control their own Players’ Shield destiny.
CLINCHING SCENARIO (HOME PLAYOFF):

Win/draw vs. NC

OR

GVL loss/draw vs. NCO

OR

CLT loss/draw vs. KNX
3. Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC
Record:15-6-8, 53pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Magic Number: Clinched

Max Points Available: 62
Strength of Schedule: 9th

Projected Finish: 3rd (65%)

Best/Worst Finish: 1st (46%)/6th (<1%)

Up Next: at GVL (9/29)
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Even with a draw and a loss in their last two matches, the Hailstorm will lock up a home playoff match with a win or draw against Greenville on Friday.
CLINCHING SCENARIO (HOME PLAYOFF):

Win/draw at GVL
4. Charlotte Independence
Record:13-8-8, 47pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Magic Number: 1

Max Points Available: 56
Strength of Schedule: 6th

Projected Finish: 4th (66%)

Best/Worst Finish: 2nd (<1%)/8th (<1%)

Up Next: vs. KNX (9/30)
+
TA win or draw against Knoxville or a South Georgia loss or draw against Richmond would mean that Charlotte will be playoff bound for the sixth time in nine seasons.
CLINCHING SCENARIO:

Win/draw vs. KNX

OR

TRM loss/draw vs. RIC
5. Greenville Triumph SC
Record:12-9-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Magic Number: 5

Max Points Available: 55
Strength of Schedule: 11th

Projected Finish: 5th (57%)

Best/Worst Finish: 2nd (<1%)/9th (<1%)

Up Next: vs. NCO (9/29)
+
With the second-easiest remaining schedule, Triumph SC should just about be a lock to become the first team in League One history to play postseason soccer in all five seasons.
CLINCHING SCENARIO:

Win vs. NCO AND KNX loss/draw at CLT
6. Forward Madison FC
Record:11-9-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 94%

Magic Number: 6

Max Points Available: 56
Strength of Schedule: 2nd

Projected Finish: 6th (79%)

Best/Worst Finish: 4th (2%)/9th (<1%)

Up Next: vs. LEX (9/30)
+
Postseason play at a packed Breese Stevens Field on a crisp, Autumn evening would be fantastic. That still is a slim possibility, but at this point, the ‘Mingos will be focused on just remaining above the playoff line.
CLINCHING SCENARIO:

Win vs. LEX AND TRM loss at RIC AND KNX loss/draw at CLT
7. South Georgia Tormenta FC
Record: 11-13-5, 38pts

Playoffs Odds: 6%

Magic Number: N/A

Max Points Available: 47
Strength of Schedule: 4th

Projected Finish: 7th (60%)

Best/Worst Finish: 4th (<1%)/10th (<1%)

Up Next: at RIC (9/30)
+
The defending champs are continuing their push to return to the postseason. There’s a chance those hopes are squashed this week, but it looks like South Georgia will live to see another day if they can get a result in Richmond.
ELIMINATION SCENARIO:

GVL win vs. NCO AND TRM loss at RIC AND MAD win vs. LEX
8. One Knoxville SC
Record: 9-11-9, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 2%

Magic Number: N/A

Max Points Available: 45
Strength of Schedule: 5th

Projected Finish: 8th (57%)

Best/Worst Finish: 5th (1%)/11th (1%)

Up Next: at CLT (9/30)
+
Win against Charlotte and Knoxville’s playoff hopes will be extended into the season’s penultimate week. Anything short of three points in Charlotte will almost certainly mean elimination.
ELIMINATION SCENARIO:

KNX loss at CLT AND MAD win/draw at LEX
9. Lexington SC
Record:7-13-9, 30pts

Playoffs Odds: 0%

Magic Number: Eliminated

Max Points Available: 39
Strength of Schedule: 1st

Projected Finish: 9th (43%)

Best/Worst Finish: 7th (<1%)/11th (<1%)

Up Next: at MAD (9/30)
+
LSC is out of the running for the playoffs and does have the toughest remaining schedule. Still, the high-scoring side could play spoiler for a few different clubs.
10. Richmond Kickers
Record:6-13-10, 28pts

Playoffs Odds: 0%

Magic Number: Eliminated

Max Points Available: 37
Strength of Schedule: 12th

Projected Finish: 9th (35%)

Best/Worst Finish: 8th (2%)/12th (<1%)

Up Next: vs. TRM (9/30)
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The Players’ Shield holders have already confirmed the largest drop down the table from one season to the next in league history. At best, the Kickers will finish in eighth place.
11. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Record:7-16-6, 27pts

Playoffs Odds: 0%

Magic Number: Eliminated

Max Points Available: 36
Strength of Schedule: 8th

Projected Finish: 11th (50%)

Best/Worst Finish: 8th (<1%)/12th (1%)

Up Next: vs. CV (9/30)
+
The Red Wolves will avoid the dreaded last-place finish with a win or draw against Central Valley.
12. Central Valley Fuego FC
Record:5-19-5, 20pts

Playoffs Odds: 0%

Magic Number: Eliminated

Max Points Available: 29
Strength of Schedule: 10th

Projected Finish: 12th (98%)

Best/Worst Finish: 10th (<1%)/12th (98%)

Up Next: at CHA (9/30)
+
A loss or draw against Chattanooga would match an all-time league record for most losses in a single season and lock up last place for Central Valley.

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Tag(s): News  Union Omaha  Chatt Red Wolves SC  Forward Madison FC  Greenville Triumph SC  Richmond Kickers  So. Georgia Tormenta FC  North Carolina FC  Central Valley Fuego FC  Hailstorm FC  Charlotte Independence  Lexington SC  One Knoxville SC 

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