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Race to the 2023 USL League One Playoffs - Week 28

By ETHAN TRIEBSCH - ethan.triebsch@uslsoccer.com, 09/20/23, 2:00PM EDT

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Six clubs compete for final three postseason berths

With just four weeks and 27 matches remaining in the regular season, the pressure is rising with six clubs remaining in contention for the three remaining spots in the 2023 USL League One Playoffs. Detailed below are some high-stakes matches to keep an eye on along with current standings with playoff-clinching details

Wednesday, September 20
Forward Madison FC
Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC
8:00 PM
Stadium IconBreese Stevens Field
Match Center

Northern Colorado have the opportunity to get three points closer to the Players’ Shield with a win over Madison. The ‘Mingos, though, will be eager to extend their all-time series advantage over the Hailstorm and simultaneously boost their playoff odds.

Saturday, September 23
Richmond Kickers
Greenville Triumph SC
6:00 PM
Stadium IconCity Stadium
Match Center

Despite Greenville needing a positive result and Richmond becoming the first Players’ Shield holders to miss out on the postseason, the Kickers will lean on the always advantageous City Stadium atmosphere to claim the upper hand in the even, 5-5-2 series.

Saturday, September 23
South Georgia Tormenta FC
One Knoxville SC
7:30 PM
Stadium IconOptim Sports Medicine Field at Tormenta Stadium
Match Center

A draw in this match will lower the magic numbers for Charlotte, Madison and Greenville by a pair of points. Regardless, both South Georgia and Knoxville surely understand the necessity of earning a positive result in this one.

1. Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC
Record: 15-5-7, 52 pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Magic Number: Clinched

Max Points Available: 67
Strength of Schedule: 4th

Projected Finish: 1st (46%)

Up Next: at MAD (9/20)

Best/Worst Finish: 1st (46%)/6th (<1%)
+
The Hailstorm locked up their first postseason appearances in just their second season of existence. Now, Northern Colorado’s attention will shift to outpacing the top six in the race to the Players’ Shield.
2. Union Omaha
Record: 15-5-7, 52 pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Magic Number: Clinched

Max Points Available: 67
Strength of Schedule: 9th

Projected Finish: 2nd (38%)

Best/Worst Finish: 1st (34%)/6th (<1%)

Up Next: vs. CV (9/23)
+
The first team to lock up their postseason spot, and rightfully so after winning nine straight, the Owls should have an easy outing in Week 28 as they host Central Valley.
CLINCHING SCENARIO: OMA win at CHA

OR

KNX loss/draw vs. GVL
3. North Carolina FC
Record: 15-7-5, 50 pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Magic Number: Clinched

Max Points Available: 65
Strength of Schedule: 5th

Projected Finish: 3rd (49%)

Best/Worst Finish: 1st (21%)/6th (<1%)

Up Next: at NC (9/20)
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North Carolina head west to take on Central Valley and Northern Colorado. While NCFC currently finds itself in third, three points in Fresno and at least one in Windsor would push North Carolina up to first or second place by the end of the weekend.
4. Charlotte Independence
Record: 12-8-8, 44 pts

Playoffs Odds: 99%

Magic Number: 5

Max Points Available: 56
Strength of Schedule: 2nd

Projected Finish: 4th (56%)

Best/Worst Finish: 1st (<1%)/9th (<1%)

Up Next: vs. MAD (9/23)
+
A win against Madison and a draw in the South Georgia-Knoxville match will confirm Charlotte’s sixth postseason appearance across its nine seasons of existence.
CLINCHING SCENARIO: CLT win vs. MAD AND TRM draw vs. KNX
5. Forward Madison FC
Record: 11-8-8, 41 pts

Playoffs Odds: 94%

Magic Number: 8

Max Points Available: 56
Strength of Schedule: 1st

Projected Finish: 6th (44%)

Best/Worst Finish: 1st (<1%)/9th (<1%)

Up Next: vs. NCO (9/20)
+
Despite its rough run of form as of late, Madison have the opportunity to lock up a postseason position with a pair of Week 28 victories and a South Georgia-Knoxville draw. Madison are just a combined 2-3-3 against Charlotte and Northern Colorado and winless against the pair in 2023, though.
CLINCHING SCENARIO: MAD win vs. NCO AND MAD win at CLT AND TRM draw vs. KNX
6. Greenville Triumph SC
Record: 11-9-7, 40 pts

Playoffs Odds: 95%

Magic Number: 9

Max Points Available: 55
Strength of Schedule: 12th

Projected Finish: 5th (40%)

Best/Worst Finish: 1st (<1%)/9th (<1%)

Up Next: at RIC (9/23)
+
Greenville really must take care of business against Richmond. Otherwise, Triumph SC opens the door for South Georgia or Knoxville to sneak up on them in the final stretch.
7. One Knoxville SC
Record: 9-10-9, 36 pts

Playoffs Odds: 6%

Magic Number: N/A

Max Points Available: 48
Strength of Schedule: 7th

Projected Finish: 7th (44%)

Best/Worst Finish: 4th (<1%)/11th (<1%)

Up Next: at TRM (9/23)
+
A Greenville loss against Richmond and a Knoxville win against South Georgia could make Week 29 very interesting, with just a point – and the playoff line – separating the pair.
8. South Georgia Tormenta FC
Record: 10-13-5, 35 pts

Playoffs Odds: 6%

Magic Number: N/A

Max Points Available: 47
Strength of Schedule: 3rd

Projected Finish: 8th (44%)

Best/Worst Finish: 4th (<1%)/12th (<1%)

Up Next: vs. KNX (9/23)
+
After a pair of deflating losses, the defending champs claimed victory in what was as close to a ‘must-win match’ as you can get against first-place North Carolina. A win against Knoxville would boost South Georgia’s playoff prospects tremendously.
9. Lexington SC
Record: 7-12-9, 30 pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Magic Number: N/A

Max Points Available: 42
Strength of Schedule: 6th

Projected Finish: 9th (53%)

Best/Worst Finish: 5th (<1%)/12th (<1%)

Up Next: vs. CHA (9/23)
+
Just 1-1-3 across its last five, those three recent draws likely felt just like a trio of losses. It wouldn’t be shocking for Lexington to get back in the win column against Chattanooga, but it will likely be too little, too late.
ELIMINATION SCENARIO: LEX loss/draw vs. CHA

OR

MAD win vs. NCO AND GVL win at RIC

OR

MAD win at CLT AND GVL win at RIC

OR

MAD draw vs. NCO AND MAD draw at CLT AND GVL win at RIC
10. Richmond Kickers
Record: 6-12-10, 28 pts

Playoffs Odds: 0%

Magic Number: Eliminated

Max Points Available: 40
Strength of Schedule: 11th

Projected Finish: 10th (53%)

Best/Worst Finish: 7th (1%)/12th (1%)

Up Next: vs. GVL (9/23)
+
With City Stadium behind them, don’t be surprised if an eliminated Richmond side outplays Greenville. The Kickers haven’t lost to Greenville in over a year.
11. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Record: 6-16-6, 24 pts

Playoffs Odds: 0%

Magic Number: Eliminated

Max Points Available: 36
Strength of Schedule: 10th

Projected Finish: 11th (67%)

Best/Worst Finish: 7th (<1%)/12th (18%)

Up Next: at LEX (9/23)
+
A year after participating in its first League One Final, the Red Wolves are officially out of the running. They’ve got one of the easiest remaining schedules and a chance to finish in seventh, for whatever that’s worth.
12. Central Valley Fuego FC
Record: 5-17-5, 20 pts

Playoffs Odds: 0%

Magic Number: Eliminated

Max Points Available: 35
Strength of Schedule: 8th

Projected Finish: 12th (81%)

Best/Worst Finish: 7th (<1%)/12th (81%)

Up Next: vs. NC (9/20)
+
Thanks to Orlando City B’s abysmal, two-year run in the league, Central Valley are safe from recording the worst season in league history. Still, Fuego FC’s 2023 run has been nothing short of disastrous.

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Tag(s): News  Union Omaha  Chatt Red Wolves SC  Forward Madison FC  Greenville Triumph SC  Richmond Kickers  So. Georgia Tormenta FC  North Carolina FC  Central Valley Fuego FC  Hailstorm FC  Charlotte Independence  Lexington SC  One Knoxville SC 

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