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Why every team in the USL League One Playoffs will – and won’t – win the title

By ETHAN TRIEBSCH - ethan.triebsch@uslsoccer.com, 10/21/22, 2:00PM EDT

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A wide-open title race begins on Saturday


A wide-open title race begins on Saturday | Image Credit: Union Omaha

The 2022 USL League One Playoffs presented by Hisense kicks off with Quarterfinals action on Saturday, Oct. 22 as No. 3 South Georgia Tormenta FC hosts No. 6 Charlotte Independence at 7 p.m. ET and No. 4 Chattanooga Red Wolves SC hosts No. 5 Union Omaha at 7:30 p.m. ET. Ahead of the Quarterfinals, eventual Semifinals and ultimately the 2022 USL League One Final, take a look at why each time has a shot to hoist the cup.

1. Richmond Kickers

Why they'll win: The Kickers have constructed one of the most prolific offenses in league history, accumulating the second-most points and the most goals in a single regular season. On a team level, Richmond set League One records in shot conversion rate at 15.7%, a goals-minus-expected goals mark of 16.52 and an astounding goal differential-minus-expected goal differential mark of +19.89. Individually, Richmond’s attacking stars also shattered single-season league records with Emiliano Terzaghi’s +6.32 goals-minus-expected goals mark and Jonathan Bolanos’ +7.11 assists-minus-expected assists tally. While this historic offensive may have overshadowed a solid defense, Richmond’s backline and goalkeeper combo combined for a league-record 75% denial rate of shots on target faced.

Why they won't: Far and away the best team in the regular season, Richmond admittedly has shown few vulnerabilities. Despite this, Richmond’s greatest struggles this season have come when its offensive stars in Terzaghi and Bolanos fail to record a goal or assist either when absent from competition or not productive while on the pitch. The league’s Golden Boot and Assists Champion winners have led the Kickers to a 12-2-6 record when either Terzaghi or Bolanos record a goal or assist. However, when both fail to record a goal or assist in a single match, the Kickers are just 2-5-3.

2. Greenville Triumph SC

Why they'll win: Anchored in the back by the veteran presence of defenders Evan Lee, Tyler Polak, Brandon Fricke and goalkeeper Paul Christensen – who amongst each other have amassed a whopping 306 combined League One regular season and postseason appearances – Greenville earned the most shutouts this season with 10. With those league-leading 10 clean sheets, Greenville became the first club in league history to register three seasons with 10 or more clean sheets. That veteran corps of defenders paired with some more experience further up the pitch (i.e. Aaron Walker, Jake Keegan, Allen Gavilanes, etc.) has helped Triumph SC to a disciplined style of play that has resulted in the fewest yellow cards in the league this season.

Why they won't: A sturdy team composed of experienced veteran playmakers has its pros, but also its cons. Out of all 11 teams, Greenville has gained the fewest points from a losing position this season, meaning that when John Harkes’ side fall behind, they are rarely capable of a comeback – something that is imperative to postseason success. Additionally, a typically buttoned-up style of play has surprisingly seen Greenville record the second-most errors leading to goals in the league with four.

3. South Georgia Tormenta FC

Why they'll win: In South Georgia’s most successful season since it joined League One in 2019, the Ibises won the most matches and scored the most goals in a single season in its professional history. Aided by former Tottenham Hotspur FC youth product Kazaiah Sterling’s club-record 13 goals and 2021 USL League Two No. 1 Prospect Kingsford Adjei’s seven goals in his first professional season, Tormenta FC found offensive success with a league-best 52.96% shooting accuracy. Predicated on possession in the opponent’s half, South Georgia also led the league in passes in the opposition’s half and racked up the second-most touches in their opponent’s penalty area. Defensively, South Georgia’s stout defensive backline led the league in interceptions and tackle success rate.

Why they won't: Tormenta FC has struggled to hold onto leads, and it likely cost South Georgia the top seed and a first-round bye during the regular season. Tormenta FC’s 19 points dropped from a winning position not only tied League One’s single-season record but also may have potentially positioned the side well above Richmond for the top seed if it had just held onto a few more results. Aside from that, South Georgia’s high-powered, fast-paced offense was prone to mistakes from time to time. Although the offensive production was the best in club history, Tormenta FC also led the league in possessions lost, something that could prove costly in the postseason.

4. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC

Why they'll win: Possibly overshadowed by Richmond’s special offensive season, Chattanooga’s impressive offensive production resulted in the second-most regular season goals in league history at 52. Led by the club’s all-time leading scorer who – incidentally – also sits behind Richmond’s Emiliano Terzaghi for the most goals scored in league history, Juan Galindrez knocked in a career-best 13 goals on the season and led all goalscorers with a 0.73 goals per 90 minutes mark. That offensive production may be a big reason that Chattanooga can go far in the playoffs, especially given the fact that it amassed the second-best goal differential against playoff-bound teams at plus-four and was tied for the second-most points earned against that group at 21.

Why they won't: Something Chattanooga struggled with during the season was discipline. Of all playoff-bound clubs, the Red Wolves amassed the most fouls at 465, most yellow cards at 106, and were tied for the most penalty kicks conceded on the regular season with Charlotte at seven. Thanks to the stellar play of Carlos Avilez in goal, only five of those seven penalties resulted in goals. Regardless, Chattanooga’s discipline-related struggles in a win-or-go-home match may prove costly.

5. Union Omaha

Why they'll win: A slow, methodical defense proved effective in suffocating opponents’ attacking units. The Owls conceded the fewest goals in the league and limited their opponents to the fewest shots allowed. A key part of the defense, though, – two-time League One Golden Glove winner Rashid Nuhu – has been sidelined with an injury for the final four matches of the regular season. While Kevin Piedrahita has proven effective as his temporary replacement between the sticks, Nuhu’s impact is significant as the Owls conceded 0.91 goals per match and won 51% of their possible points with Nuhu but conceded 1.57 goals per match and won just 38% of their possible points without the Ghanaian standout. A healthy, fit Nuhu may be the difference in Omaha’s title defense.

Why they won't: As successful as the defense has been this season, Omaha’s slow, possession-based style of play has meant limited offensive production which could be a major hurdle against the high-powered offenses Omaha will likely run into in the postseason. Not only did the Owls manage to tie for the fewest goals in the league with 34, Omaha was dead last in the league in shooting accuracy, shot conversion rate, passing accuracy, possession and dribble success rate, which is concerning to say the very least. Coupled with the fact Omaha has conceded the most goals in the league in the final 15 minutes of matches, Omaha’s struggles on the offensive end of the pitch may prove to be incredibly detrimental in its quest to go back-to-back.

6. Charlotte Independence

Why they'll win: Despite fielding the second-youngest team in the league with an average age of 24, Charlotte’s players feature a breadth of experience both domestically and abroad that may prove vital in the club’s first stab at the League One postseason. The Jacks have a solid veteran presence in the midfield with English Premier League and French Ligue 1 champion Gabriel Obertan paired with Major League Soccer mainstay Miguel Ibarra. In the back, Charlotte features fourth-year defender Clay Dimick and USL and MLS veteran Adrían Zendejas in goal. Even Charlotte’s youth in Chris Hegardt, Koa Santos and Illia Shevtsov bring top-flight experience to the pitch. Offensively, the emergence of Tresor Mbuyu and Khori Bennett – the only pair of League One teammates this season with 11 or more goals each – has helped the Jacks secure their third consecutive playoff appearance.

Why they won't: Sitting as the sixth seed in the playoffs, Charlotte’s regular season naturally featured more points dropped than its postseason-bound counterparts. More concerningly, though, is Charlotte’s record against playoff-bound opponents during the regular season. Out of the six teams participating in the playoffs, Charlotte’s 13 points earned of a possible 45 and minus-14 goal differential against playoff-bound opposition are both last in the group. Equally concerning is Charlotte’s league-high 27 second-half goals conceded, 141 shots on target allowed and 43 goals conceded in the penalty area – something that the top five clubs in the league may be able to exploit with ease.


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