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USL League One Playoff Projections - Week 29

By USLLeagueOne.com Staff, 10/19/21, 12:00PM EDT

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Greenville, Richmond close on playoff places ahead of four-team battle for final two berths


Second place will be on the line when Chattanooga Red Wolves SC and Greenville Triumph SC play on Saturday night with hosts Greenville now only two points behind the Red Wolves in the standings with two games to go. | Photo courtesy Jim Myers / Chattanoog

This weekend had a chance for two teams to clinch their playoff spots, and while both the Richmond Kickers and Greenville Triumph SC held up their end of the deal, the teams in the middle of the standings didn’t play along with FC Tucson, North Texas SC and Toronto FC II all picking up victories as well.

We’re onto the penultimate week of the season now, where Union Omaha is within touching distance of clinching the best record in the league and both Triumph SC and the Kickers can get over the line on their own with victories on Saturday night.

Here are three games to watch this week, and where everyone stands overall with two weeks to go in the campaign.

Matches to Watch


Greenville Triumph SC
Saturday, October 23
7:00 PM EST
Legacy Early College
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC

A third consecutive postseason trip isn’t just within Greenville Triumph SC’s grasp on Saturday night, but the potential to earn a bye to the Semifinals of the League One Playoffs as second-placed Chattanooga Red Wolves SC comes to Legacy Early College only two points ahead in the standings. These teams have been going in opposite directions in the past two weeks with Greenville on a three-game winning streak in which it has not conceded, and the Red Wolves having lost three games out of four. If Chattanooga can’t turn things in the right direction, Greenville could take control of second place with a game to play in the campaign, which should make for a tense, playoff-type atmosphere.

Union Omaha
Saturday, October 23
7:30 PM EST
Werner Park
Richmond Kickers

Union Omaha could lock up the best record in League One on Wednesday night with a victory against Forward Madison FC, which would take the side to 50 points with two games to go with a chance to equal North Texas SC’s record of 56 points in the regular season in the 2019 campaign with two more wins. Whether or not los Buhos are over the line in that regard, the teams around the playoff line will be hoping for a big performance from the hosts as they try to derail a Kickers side that is now on a five-game winning streak and only three points from booking its first postseason berth since 2016 in the USL Championship.

North Texas SC
Saturday, October 23
8:30 PM EST
Globe Life Park
New England Revolution II

With only a point separating seventh-placed North Texas SC and the fifth-placed New England Revolution II, there is a lot at stake for both sides in their penultimate game of the season. A playoff berth is within reach of the Revolution II with a win should Toronto FC II fail to take victory against Fort Lauderdale CF on Friday afternoon north of the border. Should it pick up three points, New England would move to 40 points – four points ahead of NTSC with a game each left to play, and at least four points ahead of Toronto FC II should it only draw with FTLCF – but North Texas has only lost twice on home turf this season and after Sunday’s victory at Fort Lauderdale CF it is coming in having won three of its last four outings overall.

Standings


1. Union Omaha
1. Union Omaha
Record: 13-4-8, 47pts
Max Points Available: 56pts
Magic Number: Clinched
Upcoming: vs. MAD (10/20); vs. RIC (10/23)
The combination of Omaha’s victory on Saturday night against North Carolina FC and Chattanooga Red Wolves SC’s defeat to Toronto FC II has moved los Buhos within three points of clinching the best record in League One and homefield advantage in the postseason. If it earns those points on Wednesday night against Forward Madison FC it would also eliminate the Flamingos from playoff contention before hosting the Richmond Kickers on Saturday night.
2. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
2. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Record: 11-5-10, 43pts
Max Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: Clinched
Upcoming: @ GVL (10/23)
Consecutive defeats have taken the Red Wolves from contending for first place to having to look nervously over their shoulders at Greenville Triumph SC closing fast. If Chattanooga gets a result on the road against Triumph SC on Saturday night, it stays in control of second place and a bye to the League One Semifinals. If it loses, it would drop to third and could be facing playing on the opening weekend of the playoffs instead.
3. Greenville Triumph SC
3. Greenville Triumph SC
Record: 11-7-8, 41pts
Max Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: 2pts
Upcoming: vs. CHA (10/23)
Triumph SC’s three-game winning streak has not only put it within a win of clinching a place in the playoffs, but also earned the side a chance to pass Chattanooga Red Wolves SC for second place. If the defending title-holders take victory at Legacy Early College on Saturday night, it will have a chance to close out and earn a bye to the Semifinals in the final weekend.
4. Richmond Kickers
4. Richmond Kickers
Record: 11-8-7, 40pts
Max Points Available: 46pts
Magic Number: 3pts
Upcoming: @ OMA (10/23)
The Kickers’ late winner against Forward Madison FC by record-setter Emiliano Terzaghi put them a win away from a postseason berth, and they could luck out and face an Omaha side that could have already locked up first place in midweek and have little to play for otherwise when they get to Werner Park on Saturday. If Richmond takes a draw in Omaha, it would also clinch should two out of North Texas SC, FC Tucson or Toronto FC II fail to take victory, with the New England Revolution II also a possibility for a team the Kickers could move clear of with a loss on the road to North Texas.
5. New England Revolution II
5. New England Revolution II
Record: 11-11-4, 37pts
Max Points Available: 43pts
Magic Number: 6pts
Upcoming: @ NTX (10/23)
The Revolution II couldn’t come through with a result at Greenville Triumph SC despite Joe Rice’s best efforts, but then the disaster scenario came through with all three of FC Tucson, North Texas SC and Toronto FC II taking victory as well. New England can still clinch a playoff spot this weekend, though, as if it takes victory against North Texas and Toronto FC II fails to take victory on Friday afternoon against Fort Lauderdale CF, the Revolution II would be clear of both sides on 40 points with one game remaining. If the visitors fall, however, it would potentially be below the playoff line with one game left to play and in need of help from elsewhere to jump back up.
6. FC Tucson
6. FC Tucson
Record: 10-10-6, 36pts
Max Points Available: 42pts
Magic Number: 6pts
Upcoming: @ MAD (10/23)
With 10 wins to North Texas SC’s nine, FC Tucson just holds the edge when it comes to the playoff positions between the two teams on 36 points and can guarantee a playoff spot with two wins to close the campaign. Tucson could also clinch a playoff spot this weekend if it takes victory against Forward Madison FC, North Texas SC loses to the New England Revolution II, and Toronto FC II fails to take victory against Fort Lauderdale CF. Should those results come to pass, it would put Tucson on 39 points and 11 wins, out of reach of both NTSC and Toronto thanks to the total wins tiebreaker with a defeat for North Texas leaving it on 36 points and nine wins, and a draw for Toronto on the same totals.
7. North Texas SC
7. North Texas SC
Record: 9-8-9, 36pts
Max Points Available: 42pts
Magic Number: N/A
Upcoming: vs. NE (10/23)
North Texas’ victory on the road set up a huge home game on Saturday night against the New England Revolution II, where a win would put the 2019 title-winners above New England with one game to go. Expect a playoff intensity at Globe Life Park.
8. Toronto FC II
8. Toronto FC II
Record: 9-9-8, 35pts
Max Points Available: 41pts
Magic Number: N/A
Upcoming: vs. FTL (10/22)
The Young Reds have won three in a row after their remarkable victory against Chattanooga Red Wolves SC on Saturday night and now have two home games to close out the season. That’s big, because Toronto is undefeated at BMO Training Center since its return home north of the border. A win on Friday against Fort Lauderdale would put pressure on New England, Tucson and North Texas to match them on Saturday.
10. Forward Madison FC
10. Forward Madison FC
Record: 6-8-11, 29pts
Max Points Available: 38pts
Magic Number: N/A
Upcoming: @ OMA (10/20); vs. TUC (10/23)
It’s win or go home time for Madison. Even a draw against Omaha on Wednesday night would drop the Flamingos’ available points to 36, and with only six wins this season it would be unable to pass any of the Revolution II, FC Tucson or North Texas.

Eliminated from playoff contention: South Georgia Tormenta FC, Fort Lauderdale CF, North Carolina FC

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