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Forecasting The Final Standings

By CAMERON KOUBEK - cameron.koubek@uslsoccer.com, 09/29/20, 3:45PM EDT

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How will the League One table look at the end of the season?

The end of the 2020 regular season is less than a month away. With just two spots available in the postseason, only seven points separate second place from eighth place in the table - meaning a lot can still happen. 

Though Greenville appears to have one foot in the League One Final, the race for the other spot looks like it will go down to the wire, and could very well be decided on October 24, the final day of the season. Here’s how I think things will play out over the homestretch, and how the table will look on October 25 - go ahead and save those receipts now so you can come expose me on Twitter later (@cameron_koubek).

1. Greenville Triumph SC
1. Greenville Triumph SC
Remaining Matches (4): vs ORL, at TUC, vs OMA, at ORL
Triumph SC have been the team to beat for the entirety of this season. John Harkes’ side is yet to drop a single point at home, and sits eight points clear at the top of the table. Nothing is a given in League One, but with two games against last-place Orlando City B in its remaining four fixtures and Greenville only five points from clinching a League One Final berth, I expect Triumph SC to wrap things up with relative comfort. The focus will then turn to ensuring a first-place finish and the right to host the final.
2. Richmond Kickers
2. Richmond Kickers
Remaining Matches (6): vs NE, vs ORL, at NTX, vs TRM, at ORL, vs CHA
Though there are still plenty of opportunities to slip up, the Kickers’ postseason destiny is in their own hands. With games in hand on the teams around them in the battle for second, Richmond's win over Omaha last weekend put the club in pole position to snag the coveted second spot in the League One Final. Things look even more favorable for the Kickers when you consider their stretch run: four of six games are at home, and all but one game (the finale against Chattanooga) are against the teams currently occupying the bottom four places in the table. Richmond will have to be careful not to take any of its remaining opponents lightly, but I trust Darren Sawatzky’s squad to continue its fine form and handle its business.
3. Forward Madison FC
3. Forward Madison FC
Remaining Matches (6): vs TUC, vs OMA, at FTL, at CHA, vs NTX, vs NE
Like Richmond, Madison benefits from having more games remaining than its rivals and four of its final six matches at home. But the Flamingos face the tall task of having to make up a six-point gap on the Kickers, while also hoping Omaha and Chattanooga drop points along the way. Madison has the chance to make that happen themselves, with games against both of those teams coming up (the Flamingos did themselves a big favor by beating the Red Wolves last weekend). Win those, and Daryl Shore’s side will be in with a chance. Lose or draw, and the fact that Madison, Omaha and Chattanooga all have to play each other will play right into Richmond’s hand. I like FMFC to leapfrog the other two teams, but don’t think they’ll quite be able to catch the Kickers.
4. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
4. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Remaining Matches (4): vs NTX, at ORL, vs MAD, at RIC
The Red Wolves made a strong midseason push up the table, but back-to-back losses in their last two games dented their postseason hopes. The next two matches are must-wins for Chattanooga, at home to tenth-place North Texas and away to last-place Orlando City B. Anything other than maximum points from those fixtures will leave the Red Wolves with a tough task in their final two games against Madison and Richmond. Chattanooga can beat anyone on its day. If the Red Wolves can get back to winning ways and the Kickers start dropping points, it could set up what would essentially be a play-in game to reach the League One Final against Richmond on the final day.
5. Union Omaha
5. Union Omaha
Remaining Matches (5): at FTL, vs TRM, at MAD, at GVL, vs FTL
After an eight-game unbeaten run to start its inaugural League One season, Union Omaha came crashing back to earth. In its last four games, the Nebraska club drew once and lost three straight in which it failed to score a goal. Omaha has perhaps the most difficult remaining slate of any of the teams still vying for a postseason spot, with trips to both Madison and Greenville coming up. The Madison match is a must-win, while the Owls will also need maximum points from home games against Tormenta FC and Fort Lauderdale to give themselves a chance. It’s certainly still possible for this efficient Omaha side to earn a place in the Final, but Jay Mims’ team must return to top form right away.
6. South Georgia Tormenta FC
6. South Georgia Tormenta FC
Remaining Matches (5): at OMA, vs TUC, at RIC, vs NE, at NTX
Tormenta’s squad is one of the most talented in the league, but the side has struggled for consistency this season. Lately, South Georgia really seems to have found its footing, with only one loss in its last five matches. The uptick in form may have come at just the right time: it won’t be easy, but Tormenta can seriously impact the playoff race as it visits both Omaha and Richmond in the next few weeks. Ian Cameron’s side can throw the battle for second into chaos with wins in those matches. On the other hand, Tormenta has little margin for error - dropped points would almost certainly signal the end of South Georgia’s playoff hopes this year.
7. Fort Lauderdale CF
7. Fort Lauderdale CF
Remaining Matches (5): vs OMA, at NTX, at NE, vs MAD, at OMA
Fort Lauderdale are in a similar spot to Tormenta - a talented squad that has struggled with consistency, but will likely impact the playoff race in a major way. The Floridians face a difficult homestretch, with two matches against a tough Union Omaha side desperate for points and one against Forward Madison. This team definitely has the ability to get hot and make a shock run up the table. All but two of Fort Lauderdale’s games this season have been decided by one goal or less, so the key for Jason Kreis’ team is finding a way to grab all three points in close contests - draws won’t be enough with points at a premium.
8. FC Tucson
8. FC Tucson
Remaining Matches (4): at MAD, at TRM, vs GVL, vs ORL
Tucson is right there in the thick of things in the mid-table. Its disadvantage is that it is the only team in the mid-table to have played 12 games. Tucson will need to be nearly perfect to move up the table at this late stage, and with a road trip to face Madison and Tormenta four days apart, that’s a big ask. League leaders Greenville then visit Kino Sports Complex and could be playing to lock up home-field advantage in the final. That gauntlet of games, plus the points gap and the fewer matches remaining, don’t bode well for Tucson’s already long playoff odds.
9. North Texas SC
9. North Texas SC
Remaining Matches (6): vs FTL, at CHA, vs RIC, at NE, at MAD, vs TRM
A spot in a second-straight League One Final for North Texas SC looks unlikely. Though the defending title-winners have been tough to beat this season, they lead the league in draws with five, and those dropped points put them near the tail-end of the table. The Texans do have games in hand, though a run of games that includes Chattanooga and Madison on the road and Richmond at home will be difficult to take maximum points from. Eric Quill’s squad could play a role in deciding which team takes the second playoff spot, but unless it comes close to winning out, the gap looks too wide for North Texas to overcome.
10. New England Revolution II
10. New England Revolution II
Remaining Matches (5): at RIC, vs FTL, vs NTX, at TRM, at MAD
New England showed real flashes of quality this year, particularly in wins against Greenville and Omaha. Barring a miracle, the postseason appears well out of reach for Revs II this season. They could play spoiler by beating Richmond or Madison, two teams they lost to at home earlier in the season and now have to play on the road. A loss to Richmond on Saturday all but mathematically eliminates New England, but as the side has repeatedly shown, it is far from a walkover opponent no matter its position in the table.
11. Orlando City B
11. Orlando City B
Remaining Matches (6): at GVL, at RIC, vs CHA, at TUC, vs RIC, vs GVL
Not only does Orlando City B sit in last place and five points adrift of the team immediately above them, the Lions also have the hardest remaining schedule in the league. Two games against each of the top two in the league in Greenville and Richmond, a matchup with third-place Chattanooga and a cross-country trip to face Tucson - it couldn’t get much tougher than that. A loss or draw against Greenville on Friday coupled with a Richmond win on Saturday would officially eliminate OCB. The Lions can be a banana peel game for any of those opponents if they can kick start an attack that hasn’t scored in three games and has produced multiple goals in a game only once this season.

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