The final place in the inaugural USL League One Playoffs will be decided on Saturday, with fourth-place Forward Madison FC (11-9-7, 40pts) and fifth-place Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (10-8-9, 39pts) going into the final day of the regular season with their fates in the balance.

Ahead of the Flamingos’ visit to Lansing Ignite FC (3 p.m. ET | ESPN+) and the Red Wolves’ home clash with Toronto FC II (7 p.m. ET | ESPN+), we’ve got three reasons why each team will be in the postseason field… and also one why this will be their final competitive game of the year.

Forward Madison FC – Why They’ll Prevail

1. FIGHT ‘TIL THE END: One thing Head Coaches will point to on a stats sheet after a game is over isn’t necessarily the final shot total, or passing accuracy rate, or possession. They’ll instead point to how successful their side was in its one-on-one battles, measured by Opta’s duel rate. And this year on the road, Forward Madison FC was the best side in League One that consistently outcompeted its hosts on their home turf. The Flamingos have won 52.1 percent of their duels, and 51.9 percent of aerials on its travels, the sort of fight that is going to help them eke out the victory they need to clinch a playoff place.

2. LONG MEMORIES: Madison and Lansing played one of the games of the season when the Flamingos last visited Cooley Law School Stadium, exchanging three goals in stoppage time before Ignite FC came away with a 3-2 victory on July 9 thanks to Alex Bruce’s 95th-minute winner. Don’t doubt that Madison’s players will remember that game well and come out looking to bring an end to the ongoing 12-game undefeated streak Lansing built off the back of that result.

3. SYLVESTRE’S ON FIRE: In the NHL’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, one of the maxims is a hot goaltender can carry you a long way. And while he may not have the same exterior padding, there’s been no hotter goalkeeper since the start of August in League One than Brian Sylvestre. The experienced shot-stopper has posted a 0.38 goals-against average, a save percentage of 88 percent and recorded five shutouts in eight games. If he can produce another shutout on Saturday, Madison will create enough chances to find a winner at the other end.

And Why They Won’t…

As great as Sylvestre has been over the past two months, Lansing has been as good for longer as a team. Undefeated in their last 12 games – with 31 goals for and a +16 goal differential over that span – Lansing needs to get a result on Saturday to secure the No. 2 seed in the postseason, meaning there is going to be a highly motivated side waiting for the Flamingos when they arrive in Michigan.

Chattanooga Red Wolves SC – Why They’ll Prevail

1. HOME SWEET HOME: This is going to seem obvious, but it is worth repeating; the Red Wolves are a far better team at home than they are on the road. They’re one of only three teams to lose only once on home turf this season – the other two going into this weekend are the playoff-bound North Texas SC and Lansing Ignite FC – and while Chattanooga hasn’t been as dominant on the scoreboard as those two clubs, they’ve consistently found a way to get things done. The Red Wolves have eight home wins this season, tied for second in the league, and they’re going to be determined to make it nine on Saturday.

2. FAST STARTERS: One of the reasons Chattanooga has been good at home has been its ability to get out to a lead. The Red Wolves have outscored opponents 11-4 in the first half of games at David Stanton Field this season, and once they get a lead at home, they rarely give it up. Chattanooga has only dropped four points from a winning position on its home turf this season, meaning if they get the first goal of the game, three points is likely to be arriving at the end of the 90 minutes.

3. EXPERIENCE MATTERS: When the chips are down, there’s nothing like having big-game experience on your side. The Red Wolves have that in abundance, with players like former USL Championship Final-winner Tony Walls coming to the fore over the first two victories in the club’s final three-game homestand. Knowing what it takes to win clutch games, and having the confidence to execute, is always a key in games like this, and the Red Wolves’ experience far outstrips that of TFC II’s young squad.

And Why They Won’t…

You could make an argument that Toronto has nothing to play for in this contest, and you’d be right. There’s no bonus for finishing sixth, after all. But while the collective might not have something at stake, forward Jordan Perruzza still has a chance to claim the League One Golden Boot after his midweek brace against the Richmond Kickers. Named to the USL 20 Under 20 this week, Perruzza found the net in his previous appearance against the Red Wolves this season and will be hungry to try and catch North Texas’ Ronaldo Damus on Saturday night, which could be a problem for a Red Wolves side that needs to win to have a chance.