skip navigation

BEST CASE, WORST CASE - League One Playoffs Edition

By USLLeagueOne.com Staff, 10/02/19, 3:58PM EDT

Share

What are the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the five teams vying for a place in the League One Final?


What happens between Lansing Ignite FC and Forward Madison FC on Saturday afternoon could have major repercussions elsewhere in the final weekend of the League One regular season. | Photo courtesy Lansing Ignite FC

It’s time for the final weekend of the inaugural USL League One regular season, and while some details of who’ll be part of next week’s League One Playoffs are set in stone – hello there, regular season title-winners North Texas SC – there’s still something at stake for the other four teams still in with a chance of reaching the League One Final at the end of this month.

So, let’s look at the best case, and worst case, scenarios for all five teams.

1. North Texas SC
Record: 16-6-5 | 53 points
Remaining Game: @TUC, 10/4
Best Case
North Texas has known it will host a Semifinal on October 12 for a while but is still waiting on an opponent. It’s most likely opponent is either Forward Madison FC or Chattanooga Red Wolves SC, so having struggled on the road against the Flamingos – losing twice at Breese Stevens Field – it might prefer if the Red Wolves managed to grab the last playoff place and the No. 4 seed for the postseason.
Worst Case
Forward Madison FC not only finds a way to take victory on the road against Lansing Ignite FC, but at the same time Greenville Triumph SC falls to South Georgia Tormenta FC by such a margin that Madison ends up with the No. 3 seed and Greenville drops to No. 4 on goal differential. Why is this a worst-case scenario for NTSC? Greenville’s the only team in the league to have gone to Toyota Stadium and not suffered defeat this year, going 1-0-1 in its two regular-season visits.
2. Lansing Ignite FC
Record: 12-5-10 | 46 points
Remaining Game: vs. MAD, 10/5
Best Case
Ignite FC is coming off a big exhibition win last weekend, and it keeps that momentum rolling in a victory against Forward Madison FC that secures second place in the standings and a meeting with Greenville Triumph SC.
Worst Case
Overwhelmed by the sight of 1,000 plastic flamingos planted surreptitiously by Madison staff around the stands at Cooley Law School Stadium, Lansing panics and loses 4-0 to Madison. Greenville’s victory in South Georgia means Triumph SC overtakes Lansing on total wins, takes the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, and makes Ignite FC head to South Carolina for next weekend’s Semifinal between the clubs.
3. Greenville Triumph SC
Record: 12-8-7 | 43 points
Remaining Game: @ TRM, 10/5
Best Case
The worst case for Lansing is the best case for Greenville, which claims its regular-season series against rival South Georgia Tormenta FC with victory on the road as Lansing suffers a shock home defeat to Forward Madison FC to move into second place on the first tiebreaker of total wins. That brings a League One Semifinal to Legacy Early College, where Triumph SC went 1-0-1 against Ignite FC during the regular season.
Worst Case
Greenville can’t rebound from its deflating regular-season home finale defeat to Orlando City B and is thumped 3-0 by South Georgia Tormenta FC. Now, instead of celebrating Forward Madison FC’s emphatic 4-0 victory on the road in Lansing, Triumph SC fans are quietly cursing it as they fall to fourth place on goal differential, which means a Semifinal visit to a North Texas SC side that will be wanting to set the record straight at home after failing to defeat Greenville in its first two visits to Toyota Stadium.
4. Forward Madison FC
Record: 11-9-7 | 40 points
Key Remaining Game: @ LAN, 10/5
Best Case
Forward Madison goes #FullMingo against Lansing, scoring four times to match its best road performance of the season. The four-goal margin of victory, combined with Greenville Triumph SC’s 3-0 loss to South Georgia Tormenta FC, sends Madison into third place in the standings on goal differential and earns a return trip to Cooley Law School Stadium to face a Lansing side that has seen its confidence shot by the dramatic end of its 12-game undefeated streak.
Worst Case
Madison’s early kickoff means that without a victory in Lansing, its place in the playoffs won’t be secure. After exchanging goals in the first half, the Flamingos throw everything at Ignite FC in the final half-hour in search of a winner, but their efforts come up short in a 1-1 draw. A few hours later, Toronto FC II puts up stubborn resistance on the road against Chattanooga Red Wolves SC, but with the hosts needing all three points to jump Madison, an 89th-minute winner by Tony Walls ends FMFC’s season in agonizing fashion.
5. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Record: 10-8-9 | 39 points
Remaining Game: vs. TOR, 10/5
Best Case
Trailing Madison in both total wins and a goal differential, the Red Wolves know even if Madison loses in Lansing a draw won’t be enough to send it to the playoffs. But after FMFC plays to a 1-1 draw against Lansing Ignite FC earlier in the day, Chattanooga scores twice in the first half and cruises the rest of the way against Toronto FC II to ease into fourth place in the standings and a visit to North Texas SC in the League One Playoffs.
Worst Case
The Red Wolves can only sit and watch as Forward Madison goes #FullMingo against Lansing on the road, notching a 4-0 victory that sets another chain of events in motion while leaving the Red Wolves with the playoffs out of their reach before kickoff against Toronto FC II arrives.

Follow USL League One

Most Recent USL League One News

Most Read USL League One News

USL League One News