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Race to the League One Playoffs – Week 25

By Staff, 09/09/19, 9:30AM EDT


North Texas is in, who will be next?

North Texas SC has booked its place in the playoffs, and Lansing Ignite FC looks set to join it, potentially by the end of this week. Elsewhere, though, things still remain murky as the Richmond Kickers’ late-season surge brought it closer to the group battling around the playoff line.

Ahead of this week’s action, here’s where things currently stand.

Projections via

1. North Texas SC
1. North Texas SC
Record: 14-5-5, 47pts
Playoff Odds Clinched
Projected Final Position: 1.0
Max Points Available: 59pts
Magic Number: N/A
Upcoming: vs. RIC (9/10)
@ TRM (9/14)
North Texas is officially the first side to earn its place in the playoffs, and by the end of the week it could have the League One regular season title in hand and the top seed for the postseason. It could, however, face tough tests in its next two contests. First, on Tuesday night when it hosts the Richmond Kickers, who come in off back-to-back victories and need to keep their momentum going, and then on Saturday when it visits a South Georgia side who will be equally desperate for victory to keep its playoff chances alive.
2. Lansing Ignite FC
2. Lansing Ignite FC
Record: 11-5-9, 42pts
Playoff Odds 99.7%
Projected Final Position: 2.1
Max Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: 5pts
Upcoming: vs. CHT (9/14)
Lansing maintained its position as the hottest team in League One with a resounding victory against Tucson on Friday night and could clinch a playoff place this week if results fall its way. Regardless of what happens elsewhere, though, a win against Chattanooga would move Ignite FC one step closer to a top-two finish at the end of the season and would definitely be welcomed by the other teams around the playoff line.
3. Greenville Triumph SC
3. Greenville Triumph SC
Record: 9-7-7, 34pts
Playoff Odds 77%
Projected Final Position: 3.8
Max Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: 13pts
Upcoming: vs. TUC (9/13)
Triumph SC will be disappointed not to have taken something from its trip to Richmond, but the rest of the weekend’s results meant that it remains in strong position to reach the postseason as of now. As tightly packed as the standings sit right behind it, though, three points at home against FC Tucson on Friday is going to be a must if Greenville is to avoid getting dragged back into a fight for a playoff place.
4. Forward Madison FC
4. Forward Madison FC
Record: 9-9-6, 33pts
Playoff Odds 18.7%
Projected Final Position: 6.1
Max Points Available: 45pts
Magic Number: 14pts
Upcoming: @ RIC (9/14)
The Flamingos were on course for what would have been a massive victory on Saturday night until South Georgia Tormenta FC’s equalizer with 10 minutes to go, which put Madison in an even tighter spot than before the weekend began. Saturday’s trip to face the Kickers – whose victory against Greenville left it with a higher potential-points total than the Flamingos – is looking like a must-win for Madison if it’s to gain control of its playoff fate.

5. South Georgia Tormenta FC
5. South Georgia Tormenta FC
Record: 8-7-9, 33pts
Playoff Odds 19.7%
Projected Final Position: 6.0
Max Points Available: 45pts
Magic Number: 14pts
Upcoming: vs. NTX (9/14)
Battling back to earn a point on the road in Madison must have felt good for Tormenta FC, but it barely moved the needle in terms of the club’s playoff chances. Now it takes on the top two teams in the league over the next two weekends – North Texas at home, Lansing away – and may need to pick up at least four points while hoping for draws elsewhere to keep it in the race.
5. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
6. Chattanooga Red Wolves SC
Record: 8-7-9, 33pts
Playoff Odds 40.2%
Projected Final Position: 5.1
Max Points Available: 45pts
Magic Number: 14pts
Upcoming: @ LAN (9/14)
The Red Wolves managed to rally late for a point against Toronto, and with three consecutive home games to close the season, the predictor likes their chances most of any side outside the current top three to make the playoffs. But Saturday’s trip to face Lansing is going to be difficult, and there’s not much margin for error going forward.
7. FC Tucson
7. FC Tucson
Record: 8-8-7, 31pts
Playoff Odds 29.2%
Projected Final Position: 5.7
Max Points Available: 46pts
Magic Number: 16pts
Upcoming: @ GVL (9/13)
Tucson got a rude awakening against Lansing, but still holds control of its playoff fate with five games to go. If it suffers a similar result against Greenville on Friday night, though, it’s going to be an uphill fight the rest of the way even if the four remaining games are all on home turf.
8. Richmond Kickers
8. Richmond Kickers
Record: 8-10-4, 28pts
Playoff Odds 14.6%
Projected Final Position: 6.7
Max Points Available: 46pts
Magic Number: 18pts
Upcoming: @ NTX (9/10)
vs. MAD (9/14)
Even though North Texas clinched a playoff place and Lansing moved in on finishing second, you could argue the Kickers had the best week possible of any team in League One thanks to its victory against Greenville and the lack of wins by anyone else from third-through-seventh place in the standings. That’s seen an almost 10 percent improvement in their playoff chances, but the current run must continue in both games this week to keep Richmond in the hunt.
9. Toronto FC IIC
9. Toronto FC II
Record: 6-9-8, 26pts
Playoff Odds 1%
Projected Final Position: 8.5
Max Points Available: 41pts
Magic Number: 21pts
Upcoming: vs. ORL (9/13)
Toronto FC II boosted everyone else around the playoff line with its draw against Chattanooga, but it’s hard to see a route to the playoffs from here, as a ninth-place finish beckons. At least a first win since July 12 is on the cards when the side hosts last-place Orlando on Friday evening.
Eliminated: Orlando City B

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